News Tip - Expert Comments on Holiday Shopping Season

The 2013 holiday shopping season, should be fairly in line with expectations or slightly above them, according to JMU assistant professor of economics Dr. Andre Neveu.

 Dr. Andre Neveu 
Assistant professor of economics, James Madison University 
neveuax@jmu.edu

Dr. Neveu is an expert in business cycles, monetary theory, macro policy, and financial markets. His current research includes such articles as “Reviewing the Role of Network Analysis in Systemic Risk Measurement and Financial Market Regulation” as well as “Tax Credits for Residential Energy Efficiency” and “Consensus Forecasts and Forward Exchange Rates as Predictors of Spot Exchange Rates.” See all of Dr. Neveu’s recent research.

Quotes:

“Retailers seem to be expecting very slow sales growth—if any—relative to last year, but consumers can often be surprising. It is true that there are a number of reasons that consumer confidence has fallen recently including the shutdown, debt ceiling, and failed rollout of the Affordable Care Act. However, those declines in confidence do not always translate into declines in spending during the holidays.”

“One reason for some optimism is that the stock market and home prices have continued to rise throughout the year. The S&P 500 index is at an all-time high, and has been resilient in spite of many economists predicting a pull-back at any moment.”

“I would expect to see strong sales for higher-end products, such as the new Playstation, Xbox, iPhone, iPad, iPad Mini, and Android phones. These higher-end technology products attract consumers into brick-and-mortar retail stores like BestBuy and Wal-Mart when they might otherwise just shop for things online. People often like to test out these types of products before purchasing them, so I would expect that to drive some business to these retail outlets.”

“I'm hesitant to predict that the release of these products [such as the new Playstation, Xbox, iPhone, iPad, iPad Mini, and Android phones] would increase consumer's overall spending, but retailers will try to entice them to spend more on other goods with reduced prices.”